April 17, 2017
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
The April Empire manufacturing index, also known as the New York Federal Reserve manufacturing index came in at 5.2, which compares to the estimate of 15. However, the prices received portion of the report was 12.4, when 8.8 was reported in March.
The 9:00 central time April National Association of Home Builders housing market index is anticipated to be 70.
Once the bearish geopolitical influence subsides this market will be rescued by improving growth prospects for the global economy and the still historically low domestic and global interest rate structure.
In addition, stock index futures tend to rebound immediately in the two weeks following the April 15 tax day (Tax Day is April 18 this year).
Recent declines are not the beginning of any new bear market for stock index futures.
Last week the U.S. dollar fell after President Donald Trump said the U.S. dollar "is getting too strong" and he would prefer the Federal Reserve keep interest rates low. In addition, he left open the possibility of re-nominating Federal Reserve Chair Yellen once her tenure is over in February next year.
Geopolitical problems apparently did not worsen over the weekend, which caused some flight to quality longs to be liquidated today, including in the U.S. dollar.
Overall, the U.S. dollar has recently shown a tendency to underperform the news.
The Australian dollar is higher on news that China’seconomy grew 6.9% in the first quarter from a year ago, which is slightly faster than expected. Analysts anticipated the economy would expand 6.8% in the first quarter, which is the same as in the fourth quarter of 2016. The first quarter growth rate was the strongest since the third quarter of 2015.
In addition, China’s industrial output increased 7.6% on the year when a gain of 6.2% was estimated.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
At 4:00 this afternoonFederal Reserve Vice ChairmanStanley Fischer will give remarks on "Monetary Policy Communication" in New York City.
The probability of a rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s May 3 policy meeting is 4%, which is unchanged from Thursday and the probability of a rate increase at the June 14 meeting is 48%, which compares to 57% late last week.
While flight to quality buying has recently supported the 30 year Treasury bond futures, along with President Trump’s interest rate comments, the dominant bearish global inflation influence, will put pressure on futures in the longer term.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
June 17 S&P 500
Support 2320.00 Resistance 2338.00
June 17 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 99.950 Resistance 100.490
June 17 Euro Currency
Support 1.06260 Resistance 1.06950
June 17 Japanese Yen
Support .92040 Resistance .92830
June 17 Canadian Dollar
Support .75060 Resistance .75490
June 17 Australian Dollar
Support .7555 Resistance .7598
June 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 153^10 Resistance 154^16
June 17 Gold
Support 1285.0Resistance 1299.0
May 17 Copper
Support 2.5500 Resistance 2.6150
May 17 Crude Oil
Support 52.55 Resistance 53.72
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at email@example.com. Thank you.
Would you like to open an account with us? Go to our interactive New Account application at https://accountapplication.admis.com/OnlineApp/OApp/?Office=0x1d779e59b9f5bb61c7e095e8264bc3370a4384a3. It is fast, saves on postage and it’s green.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.