April 13, 2017
Watch Alan Bush's video commentary on this article here:https://youtu.be/MpgPVQIeEGk
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
The March producer price index declined .1%, which compares to expectations of unchanged and the producer price index excluding food and energy was unchanged when an increase of .2% as anticipated.
Jobless claims in the week ended April 8 fell 1,000 to 234,000, which compares to the estimate of 245,000.
The 9:00 central time April University of Michigan sentiment index is estimated to be 96.5.
Once the bearish geopolitical influence subsides this market will be rescued by improving growth prospects for the global economy and the still historically low domestic and global interest rate structure.
This is not the beginning of any new bear market for stock index futures.
The U.S. dollar fell after President Donald Trump yesterday said the U.S. dollar "is getting too strong" and he would prefer the Federal Reserve keep interest rates low. Also, he left open the possibility of re-nominating Federal Reserve Chair Yellen once her tenure is over next year.
The U.S. dollar has recently shown a tendency to underperform the news.
The Australian dollar is sharply higher, posting its largest single day gain in a month, on news that employment surged more than expected in March and on reports of improving Chinese imports.
Full time jobs in Australia increased by the most in almost 30 years.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures firmed yesterday afternoon with follow through today after President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he would prefer the Federal Reserve keep interest rates low.
The probability of a rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s May 3 policy meeting is 4%, which is unchanged from Wednesday and the probability of a rate increase at the June 14 meeting is 57%, which is also unchanged from yesterday.
The 30 year Treasury bond futures are at the top of the broadly based congestion pattern in the 147^7 - 154^11 range that began last November.
While flight to quality buying has recently supported the 30 year Treasury bond futures, along with President Trump’s interest rate comments, the dominant bearish inflation influence will put pressure on futures in the longer term.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
June 17 S&P 500
Support 2330.00 Resistance 2349.00
June 17 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 99.810 Resistance 100.450
June 17 Euro Currency
Support 1.06470 Resistance 1.07190
June 17 Japanese Yen
Support .91650 Resistance .92360
June 17 Canadian Dollar
Support .75460 Resistance .75790
June 17 Australian Dollar
Support .7513 Resistance .7598
June 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 153^10 Resistance 154^11
June 17 Gold
Support 1283.0Resistance 1295.0
May 17 Copper
Support 2.5350 Resistance 2.9500
May 17 Crude Oil
Support 52.67 Resistance 53.72
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at email@example.com. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.